Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2305 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2305 · SFO → IAH

departs 4:11 PM PT · arrives 10:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

IAH (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2305 · SFO → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?