Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2317 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2317 · ORD → MEM

departs 9:20 PM CT · arrives 11:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±5 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ MEM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.23 in

MEM (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling533 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2317 · ORD → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?