Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2351 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2351 · ORD → TUL

departs 8:29 PM CT · arrives 10:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ TUL usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

TUL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2351 · ORD → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?