Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2353 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2353 · IAH → POS

departs 4:59 PM CT · arrives 11:37 PM AST

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at POS more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to POS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at POS

↓ Arrivals into POS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

POS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2353 · IAH → POS

Odds over time

How late will it get to POS?