UA 2421 · SFO → YVR

took off 10:22 AM PT · landed 12:04 PM PDT (scheduled 10:25 AM PT → 12:50 PM PDT)

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YVR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Arrivals into YVR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

YVR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2421 · SFO → YVR

Odds over time

How late did it get to YVR?