Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2451 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2451 · IAH → MCO

departs 6:26 PM CT · arrives 9:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

MCO (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2451 · IAH → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?