Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2462 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2462 · YYZ → SFO

departs 5:17 PM EDT · arrives 7:44 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2462 · YYZ → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?