Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2470 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2470 · ORD → CID

departs 8:29 PM CT · arrives 9:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CID?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ CID usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CID

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

CID (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2470 · ORD → CID

Odds over time

How late will it get to CID?