Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2496 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2496 · EWR → RSW

departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 11:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 8pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2496 · EWR → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?