Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2615 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2615 · PDX → SFO

departs 7:33 PM PT · arrives 9:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±8 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2615 · PDX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?