Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2822 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2822 · PDX → ORD

departs 8:26 AM PT · arrives 2:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2822 · PDX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?