Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2845 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2845 · MCO → ORD

departs 6:01 PM ET · arrives 8:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2845 · MCO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?