Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2854 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2854 · SFO → PHL

departs 11:20 PM PT · arrives 6:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 11pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2854 · SFO → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?