Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3799 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 3799 · CVG → LBB

departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at LBB more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LBB?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from CVG are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ CVG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LBB (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3799 · CVG → LBB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LBB?