Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3801 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 3801 · GTR → OKC

departs 7:30 PM CT · arrives 9:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OKC?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into OKC at that hour are often late

↓ 7pm departures from GTR are usually not late

↓ GTR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

GTR (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.11 in

OKC (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3801 · GTR → OKC

Odds over time

How late will it get to OKC?