Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3877 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 3877 · AMA → BZN

departs 4:48 PM CT · arrives 6:26 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BZN?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into BZN at that hour are often late

↓ BZN usually runs smoothly

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AMA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

BZN (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3877 · AMA → BZN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BZN?