Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3904 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 3904 · ROC → ORD

departs 10:10 AM ET · arrives 11:22 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3904 · ROC → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?