Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 457 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 457 · ORD → CLE

departs 9:20 PM CT · arrives 11:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE

↓ CLE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.23 in

CLE (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 457 · ORD → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?