Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 624 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 624 · PHX → DEN

departs 4:25 PM MT · arrives 7:21 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.13 in

DEN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 624 · PHX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?