Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 630 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 630 · ORD → MSN

departs 7:53 PM CT · arrives 8:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MSN that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

MSN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 630 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?