Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 639 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 639 · SFO → SBA

departs 4:12 PM PT · arrives 5:37 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SBA that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SBA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SBA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 639 · SFO → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?