Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 705 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 705 · SFO → IAD

departs 9:28 PM PT · arrives 4:55 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 705 · SFO → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?