Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 719 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 719 · DEN → RNO

departs 7:25 PM MT · arrives 8:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at RNO that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 719 · DEN → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?