Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 731 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 731 · DEN → BUF

departs 5:45 PM MT · arrives 11:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 731 · DEN → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?