Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 751 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 751 · SFO → LAS

departs 4:41 PM PT · arrives 6:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±5 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

LAS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 751 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?