Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 809 · SFO → MNL

departs 3:30 PM PT · arrives 8:08 PM PST

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at MNL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MNL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MNL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 809 · SFO → MNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to MNL?