Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8165 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 8165 · DEN → DFW

departs 5:40 PM MT · arrives 8:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8165 · DEN → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?