Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8199 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 8199 · IAD → EWR

departs 10:58 PM ET · arrives 12:19 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8199 · IAD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?