Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 907 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 907 · ORD → FRA

departs 7:38 PM CT · arrives 9:52 AM CET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±7 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FRA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA

↓ Arrivals into FRA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

FRA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 907 · ORD → FRA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FRA?