Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1104
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1104 · SMF → PSP
departs 9:18 AM PT · arrives 10:56 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 5%
Fri 10/30 6%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at PSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PSP?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PSP is prone to delays
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PSP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.