Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1186 · MDW → SEA
departs 7:06 PM CT · arrives 9:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.