Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1191
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1191 · SMF → BUR
departs 6:40 PM PT · arrives 8:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 28%
Thu 11/5 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.