Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1194
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1194 · MCO → BNA
departs 3:01 PM ET · arrives 4:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.