WN 1198 · ELP → LAX

departs 9:15 AM MT · arrives 10:24 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ 9am departures from ELP are usually not late

↓ ELP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ELP (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.12 in

LAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1198 · ELP → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?