WN 1204 · SAN → SMF

departs 2:31 PM PT · arrives 4:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

SMF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1204 · SAN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?