Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1264 · BNA → MCO
departs 8:01 PM CT · arrives 11:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.