Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1320
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1320 · SBA → SAN
departs 11:21 AM PT · arrives 12:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
↓
11am departures from SBA are usually not late
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.19 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.