Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1430 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

WN 1430 · RSW → BNA

departs 11:40 AM ET · arrives 12:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from RSW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ WN's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1430 · RSW → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?