Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1438 · DAL → PHX
departs 7:46 PM CT · arrives 8:27 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.