Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1470 · ECP → MCI
departs 3:36 PM CT · arrives 5:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ECP
↑
Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late
↓
ECP usually runs smoothly
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ECP (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,567 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.