Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1496 · MDW → SAT
departs 11:36 AM CT · arrives 2:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↑
11am departures from MDW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SAT that day
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.