Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1505
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1505 · ELP → SAT
departs 11:16 AM MT · arrives 1:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SAT that day
↑
ELP is prone to delays
↑
SAT is prone to delays
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
11am departures from ELP are usually not late
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.