Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1516 · DEN → PHX
departs 7:37 PM MT · arrives 8:42 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±2 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
7pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.