Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1526
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1526 · OGG → PHX
departs 8:27 PM HT · arrives 5:24 AM MT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 10%
Tue 11/3 13%
Wed 11/4 12%
Thu 11/5 17%
Fri 11/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are usually not late
↓
8pm departures from OGG are usually not late
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.