Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1576
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1576 · MCO → AUS
departs 4:46 PM ET · arrives 6:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at AUS that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.