Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1583 · MCO → RDU
departs 8:02 PM ET · arrives 9:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.