Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1584
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
WN 1584 · AUS → MCI
departs 5:51 PM CT · arrives 7:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 32%
Thu 11/5 39%
Fri 11/6 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.02 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.