Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1686 · SAT → DAL
departs 10:09 AM CT · arrives 11:27 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.