Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1746
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1746 · DEN → RDU
departs 5:41 PM MT · arrives 11:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 38%
Tue 11/3 46%
Wed 11/4 36%
Thu 11/5 51%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±6 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.