Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1780
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1780 · SAN → ELP
departs 10:01 AM PT · arrives 12:58 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
SAN is busy at that time
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.